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Thread: Ukraine - Munich II ?

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    Default Ukraine - Munich II ?

    I made a joke In Here some time ago (at least I thought it was a joke) about Putin's Panzers rolling towards Kiev. Some joke. The Panzers have indeed rolled; along with the rocket batteries, the heavy artillery, the crates of ammo, the night vision equipment ... of course, this has Nothing to Do with Russia. Admittedly, east Ukraine is a place that has long been well-supplied with small arms, thanks to the high level of militarization that characterized Soviet society, and there would have been some scope for obtaining heavy equipment by looting Ukrainian Army arsenals and depots but, at the same time, battle tanks and heavy guns do not grow on trees. Neither do crews trained to use heavy weapons. If these did not come from Mother Russia, where did they come from ? Answers on a postcard ...

    ... Meanwhile, back in Yerp, there is a certain irony in seeing Frau Merkel expounding on the "peace plan" developed by herself and by President Hollande of France at the annual European security conference, at Munich. In face of the apparently intractable situation, two possible solutions to a semi-solution seem to be emerging. The US is moving towards the option of supplying "defensive" armaments to the Ukrainians to help them defend their surviving territory. This notion scarcely promises a solution in itself since - unless it means something much more substantial than it says - it appears to ignore the problem of what one does about the large amount of Ukrainian territory already seized by the Little Russian Brothers in east Ukraine, not to mention that "annexed" by Russia itself in the Crimea. Set against this is the Merkel/Hollande Plan. It is not wholly clear what this would involve but, very clearly, it would involve some sort of "conciliated" plan that would necessarily leave a substantial amount of Ukrainian territory (certainly the Crimea) under Russian control, either directly or through the Little Russian Brothers. The US and "EU" approaches are, in effect, mutually contradictory, although not mutually exclusive. While the US government's precise position is unclear, it does emerge from the comments of "independent" US think-tanks that, over the Pond, many believe that the Merkel/Hollande Plan amounts to appeasement of Russia's armed aggression on the part of the West. I would not wish to take it too far - but comparisons with the Munich 1938 situation of "mediation" of a dispute in the East on the part of the Western "Powers" certainly invite themselves.

    But "EU" Plan ? Er ... no. It is fascinating that both the Eurocracy and most of the EU Member States have, at least up to now, been frozen out of this process. It is very much an exclusive German/French initiative - that is, one by the original foundation EEC "Powers". The EU itself seems to have been relegated to a sort of reserve role, to be brought into play of the Franco-German effort runs into trouble. So much for the alleged collegiality and fraternity still attributed by deluded Europhiles to the EU "project".

    One consequence of this approach that may yet have severe adverse consequences for the EU, just possibly overlooked (or maybe not) by Merkel and Hollande is the deep embarrassment it has caused to the other self-styled "power" in the EU, the United Kingdom. Britain obviously feels humiliated by their exclusion. The unfortunate UK Foreign Secretary was left struggling to explain this situation on a BBC news programme the other day; he was forced to say that the real decisions on this private exercise in Ostpolitik would be made in a forthcoming meeting of the EU Foreign Ministers' "General Questions" Council. Obvious nonsense; the Foreign Ministers will be lucky if the actual participants give them a general idea of what is going on. Certainly, no decisions of any sort will be made at this level. While Member States in general are probably irked by this example of Franco-German "leadership", it is a particular problem for Britain, given its perception of itself as a "Power" and the presence of a very strong and persistent anti-EU sentiment in the UK. The humiliation of Prime Minister Cameron and his government is grist to the mill of the strong anti-EU wing of the ruling Conservative Party and of the xenophobe United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP). Cameron has promised that if the Conservatives (or a Conservative-led government) is returned to power in May's General Election, an "in-out" referendum on continued EU membership will be held. This is to follow an attempt to re-negotiate the terms of Britain's membership of the EU. Since the "terms" that the UK is interested in re-negotiating involve such things as free movement of persons, freedom of employment across the Union and employment protection laws - fundamental pillars of the EU Single Market, apart from anything else - it is difficult to see much being achieved by re-negotiation. Acts by the main "Continental powers" that humiliate and marginalize the UK will be another brick in the platform upon which the "No" campaign in a forthcoming referendum will build.

    Perhaps Germany and France, tiring of the UK's continuously "difficult" attitude to EU business, have decided that they would be better off without the UK unless they pull into line ? Perhaps they are hoping that the next UK government will be led by the Labour Party, which has no commitment to a referendum and has for the most part "tamed" its own anti-European wing ? If this is the way the wind is blowing, it would dismay me, and many others in the Union. The UK Labour Party has a huge leeway to make up on the Tories in terms of seats to win following its defeat in the last General Election. Furthermore, the whole situation has been complicated by the collapse of Labour support in Scotland, promising significant gains by the Scottish National Party at Labour's expense. It is all too likely that the next government will either be Conservative or Conservative-led. In a worst case scenario (from an EU viewpoint) this Conservative government would be in coalition with the rabidly anti-EU UKIP. In such a scenario the in-out referendum would be very much on the cards, and a British exit from the Union all too likely. Greece leaving the Eurozone ? That would be a mere hiccup compared to the departure of one of the EU's three major economies from the Union as a whole.

    Perhaps those of us who value Britain's membership of the EU - in spite of its *****ly presence - should pray for the victory of Labour and its highly intelligent but poorly-presenting leader, Ed "Wallace and/or Gromit" Milliband. Interesting times for the "New Europe" in any event ...

    Yours from the bus-stop on Place Schuman, JR.
    Last edited by JR*; 03-11-2015 at 09:55 AM.

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    Default Re: Ukraine - Munich II ?

    You have a well made crystal Ball JR, not the usual Lucas variety.

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    Default Re: Ukraine - Munich II ?

    Quote Originally Posted by JR* View Post
    ... Meanwhile, back in Yerp, there is a certain irony in seeing Frau Merkel expounding on the "peace plan" developed by herself and by President Hollande of France at the annual European security conference, at Munich.
    It's refreshing to see France and Germany united to prevent a European war rather than opposed to each other to bring one on.

    Quote Originally Posted by JR* View Post
    The US is moving towards the option of supplying "defensive" armaments to the Ukrainians to help them defend their surviving territory.
    Brilliant!

    Re-ignite the Cold War with a long term prospect of turning it into a hot one with Putin at the Russian helm, and add Ukraine to America's almost unbroken run of losses, disasters, and self-inflicted wounds for the past half century when it interferes in places far from its homeland and with no or insufficient strategic value to warrant such intervention.

    This latest American idiocy of threatening to get involved in something that has exactly zero bearing on the lives of Americans makes MacArthur's nuclear belligerence in Korea seem hugely rational. It also appears to spring from the same anti-Communist group think that requires Soviet, now Russian, expansion to be confronted to save the free world.


    Quote Originally Posted by JR* View Post
    Greece leaving the Eurozone ? That would be a mere hiccup compared to the departure of one of the EU's three major economies from the Union as a whole.
    Maybe.

    Or maybe it would be the trigger that eventually destroys the EU and NATO, leading to the resumption of competition in various economic and military spheres by European nations, and leaves Russia as the major military power in Europe (assuming one regards Russia as being part of Europe).

    As a side note, Greece is in exactly the position anyone with half a brain (which automatically excludes economists and national treasurers etc) knew it would be by imposing austerity measures which necessarily reduced Greece's economic activity, employment, production, and, obviously, ability to repay its debts. Nice work, mainly by Germany.

    If an equivalent level of diplomatic genius is motivating France's and Germany's peace solution in Ukraine, the conflict with Russia will get worse.

    Quote Originally Posted by JR* View Post
    Perhaps those of us who value Britain's membership of the EU - in spite of its *****ly presence - should pray for the victory of Labour and its highly intelligent but poorly-presenting leader, Ed "Wallace and/or Gromit" Milliband. Interesting times for the "New Europe" in any event ...
    Those of us who value common sense would like to see it applied by (1) the US in keeping out of arming Ukraine, which has nothing to do with the US and can only inflame Russia's sense that the US is attempting to encircle it and or confront it (which is exactly what the US is doing); (2) the US waking up to the fact that, with the exception of Gulf War 1, for the past half century it hasn't demonstrated capacity to deal successfully with a number of hot wars which, compared with one with Russia, are trivial in the forces required and especially the logistics; and (3) unified action by NATO members and all other mature nations to deal with the Russian threat to peace rather than the independent and ill-considered floundering around by France / Germany pursuing an almost certainly doomed line and the US seeming about to pursue a contradictory and, for those hoping for peace, much more inflammatory line.

    Europe seems to me to be entering the early stages of alignments and competing national aims which, although entirely different to those which existed before WWI, seem in some respects similar in their potential for armed conflict in an unstable situation. We're probably a long way off it, but with lunatic expansionist Putin seeking to re-establish the Russian Empire, it's a definite possibility.
    Last edited by Rising Sun*; 02-10-2015 at 06:07 AM.
    ..
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    Montesquieu

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    Default Re: Ukraine - Munich II ?

    As Ukrainians and Russians/Little Russian Brothers continue to exchange artillery fire wherever it suits them, it looks as if Merkel's cease-fire is on the brink of collapse. Surprise, surprise ! I hope not, though. Best regards, JR.

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    Default Re: Ukraine - Munich II ?

    The Ukrainian Army had just been forced to make a withdrawal from a strategic area that rather resembled some of the "disorderly" breakouts by encircled German forces during WW2, albeit on a smaller scale. Two possibilities - first, having "disposed" of this contentious issue, the front may go quiet, effectively substantiating the Merkel/Hollande cease-fire. Secondly - both sides continue the conflict. The latter is very likely. The Little Russian Brothers appear determined to capture all ethnic Russian territory in east Ukraine. The Ukrainians appear determined to reverse the Little Russian Brothers/Russian occupation of Ukrainian territory - including the Crimea. It is doubtful whether either Vlad the Invader or the Ukrainian authorities are really in control of this situation at this point. Gods help us ! JR.

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    Well, fact is Russia under Vlad The Invader is stronger than ever. Compare it to Jelcin era - what is to compare ? There would be no jerking with Kosovo had uncle Vlad been around.

    To come back to topic.
    Suddenly all seem to forgot that it was CIA sponsored/armed/financed Kiev toppling of Yanukovich that started this all. They armed Ukraine neo-nazis to teeth and opened Russian minority hunting season.
    US isn't there by accident. Ukraine's resources are enormous to exploit. And Vlad Dracula won't allow Donbas to fall in wrong hands.

    Sure Russia signed agreement not to attack Ukraine and broke this treaty. But that certainly implied it's minority won't be bullied up, and no NATO/EU in Ukraine. As regards history let's start with Kiev Rus.... Things are more complicated than we like them to be.

    I quote Russian high adviser on CNN other day: "Russia defeated more serious opponents before, NATO countries should be reminded Russia is military superpower". I only hope there will be no war with Russia, or Russian tanks will be on Oder/Danube river again...

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    Quote Originally Posted by witman111 View Post
    Well, fact is Russia under Vlad The Invader is stronger than ever. Compare it to Jelcin era - what is to compare ? There would be no jerking with Kosovo had uncle Vlad been around.
    LOL What would "Vlad" have done about Kosovo?

    To come back to topic.
    Suddenly all seem to forgot that it was CIA sponsored/armed/financed Kiev toppling of Yanukovich that started this all. They armed Ukraine neo-nazis to teeth and opened Russian minority hunting season.
    US isn't there by accident. Ukraine's resources are enormous to exploit. And Vlad Dracula won't allow Donbas to fall in wrong hands.
    The CIA had little involvement, it was a long simmering dispute within the Ukraine between those that didn't mind being a Russian province and those that did. If the Ukrainians are Neonazis, you should join them then!! And Donbas is devastated with an aging population as like 50% of the younger people have fled...

    Sure Russia signed agreement not to attack Ukraine and broke this treaty. But that certainly implied it's minority won't be bullied up, and no NATO/EU in Ukraine. As regards history let's start with Kiev Rus.... Things are more complicated than we like them to be.

    I quote Russian high adviser on CNN other day: "Russia defeated more serious opponents before, NATO countries should be reminded Russia is military superpower". I only hope there will be no war with Russia, or Russian tanks will be on Oder/Danube river again...
    LOL Russia has serious issues with 4/5's of its conventional forces. They have an elite that is well funded, trained, and equipped; then there is the rest that would be target practice for NATO tanks. I wouldn't confuse Russian forces pushing around technically vastly inferior Ukrainian forces using their shit, obsolete equipment...

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    Default Re: Ukraine - Munich II ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nickdfresh View Post
    LOL What would "Vlad" have done about Kosovo?
    Nothing, all he had to show was little red button... rest is psychological profiling that was already done for him long ago.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nickdfresh View Post
    The CIA had little involvement...
    http://www.informationclearinghouse....ticle37599.htm
    Imagine protesters beating up US special police in Washington DC and Ucle Vlad threatening Obama not to use force 3 months before regular elections
    But they had to do it. Otherwise extreme right would never get to power.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nickdfresh View Post
    LOL Russia has serious issues with 4/5's of its conventional forces. They have an elite that is well funded, trained, and equipped; then there is the rest that would be target practice for NATO tanks.
    You know, Hitler thought same thing. Unmotivated Russians and obsolete Russian technology. And he was off, way off. Just ask elite German panzer divisions.
    When EC president Barosso called Vlad to inquire about Russia's intervention in Ukraine, Vlad said "what intervention" ? And added if there were intervention, Russian tanks can be in Bukurest/Budapes/Warsaw in few days. And he was right.

    I live in central Europe and I know very well no Cameron/Obama would ever come to save us.

    and P.S
    I so wish you to somehow spend 1 day in Stalingrad 1942...
    That attitude of yours would come off in 5 min. And you would be probably dead next day. Frozen, un-buried with facial expression of unimaginable last breath agony and pain, as reminder to others of your kin.
    Last edited by witman111; 03-04-2015 at 07:34 AM.

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    When you have spent that day in 1942 Stalingrad, then you can recommend it to others. Otherwise, you will be seen as "talking through your hat" which is not something you want to be doing here. You are also getting very close to insulting another member which is against Forum rules. re: "Frozen, un-buried with facial expression of unimaginable last breath agony and pain, as reminder to others of your kin."

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    1) I said his attitude would probably get him dead in situation he very much desires. Dead, frozen people TODAY in Ukraine are result of policy he advocates and implements even if only on forum.

    2) When some1 tries to deny US sponsored Kiev coup with all the bloodshed that has brought to that country I don't know what else to say. Yanukovich was legally elected ! Just as that pro-western lady was before him and you didn't see Russians staging a coup nor hating Ukrainians for that part. Nick has to face with his more than double standards, sawing death and hatred all round globe.

    And that is after US has unbroken streak of wars in last 2 decades. His gung-ho-democracy attitude has brought nothing but misery for citizens of Libiya and Syria to name but a few lately. All were more/less good, but now it's citizens are in religious fractions, enjoying NO law, NO social service, NO protection dying all over their cities and villages. With absolutely 0 prospect in future. Yes, thank you Nick and US.

    Of course US did because it has interest to do so. Just as to attack Sadam AGAIN after he decides to charge oil in euros not dollars. Who is creating New World Order here ? Is it uncle Vlad ?

    This is what gung-ho demoracy has brought to these nations:
    Click image for larger version. 

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    Dear Nick could considering relocating his headquarters from New York to Stalingrad 1942 or Syria.

    Yes, I deeply wish he does so he wouldn't talk rubbish anymore.
    Last edited by witman111; 03-05-2015 at 03:09 AM.

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    Default Re: Ukraine - Munich II ?

    I do not know about US/CIA sponsorship of "Ukrainian fascists" but - to revert to my comments in another forum - there is no doubt whatsoever that the current crisis in the Ukraine was triggered by the bungling "Ostpolitik" of the incompetent Brussels bureaucracies, principally the European Union, but also, coat-tailing the EU, NATO.

    Ever since the fall of the Berlin Wall, the EC/EU has consistently pursued a (forgive me) German-inspired "Drive to the East" - described to me once as "Blitzkrieg without panzers". Well, "Blitzkrieg" is perhaps wrong; more a case of "Sitzkrieg", perhaps. Slowly, over a period of two decades, the EU has extended membership eastward, increasingly absorbing the cordon of buffer states established for the old Soviet Union by Stalin. In many (all ?) cases, NATO membership followed. They went further, absorbing the Baltic States that were actually a part of the old Soviet Unioin; these states are now also full NATO members. This process was facilitated by the economic and political chaos into which Russia descended following the fall of the Soviet Union, which weakened its ability to mount an effective response.

    This "Push to the East" was profoundly unwise, on two grounds. First, while the absorbtion of a number of western European states not perhaps ready for EC/EU membership (notably Ireland and Portugal, but also Spain) in the early phase of expansion (pre-Berlin Wall) made a certain sense in terms of the EC's basic "brief", expanding to the East involved taking in a number of large states burdened with the heritage of Soviet-type economic structures and legal systems that required much larger adjustment to adapt to EC membership, made little sense. On the economic front, progress towards EC/EU standards has been uneven - pretty successful in Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, less convincing (to say the least) in other cases. The other major problem - that of the heritage of Soviet-type legal systems - remains hugely problematic and little addressed, and has already resulted in a myriad of little-publicized difficulties that may yet prove a major barrier to EU "cohesion".

    The other problem, of course, is the old-fashioned geo-political one, that the EU/NATO expansion increasingly infringed Russia's historic "sphere of influence". This does not seem to have mattered much (at least from the EU/NATO point of view) as long as Russia remained, apparently, weak and quiescent. However, since he assumed what amounts to supreme power, Vladimir Putin has been reconstructing Russia on particular lines that have restored it to a degree of strength. True, it can now be described as an oligarchic kleptocracy, with Putin as "Supreme Magistrate" - hardly (from a western viewpoint) an ideal economic or political arrangement, and hardly the one most likely to benefit the Russian people, or even the power of the State to project its power. Reconstruction nonetheless, and it has now placed Russia in some position to project its historic political and nationalistic imperatives.

    By late-2013, EU/NATO encroachment and Russian recovery were on an immediate collision course. The EU was on the point of concluding "association agreements" with the Ukraine and Moldova - both former Soviet Republics, right on Russia's borders. These agreements were, clearly, a prelude to membership processes, possibly leading to EU and NATO membership. Russia, very clearly, signaled its unwillingness to tolerate this. As far back as 2012, Russia had imposed temporary economic sanctions on the Ukraine that were essentially political in nature, but disguised under commercial and/or legal cover. At the end of 2013, threats of further sanctions were made against the Ukraine and Moldova, clearly designed to signal that these states should desist with moves to "deepen" their relationship with the EU. Moldova, whose economy (like that of the Baltic States) is critically dependent on trade with Russia) took the hint, and backed off. Ukraine, which is similarly dependent, did not, at least until it was too late. Having come within days of signing an EU association agreement, the Ukrainian government of the time, facing Russian threats, backed off. This, not surprisingly, resulted in an uprising against it by west Ukrainians who had been encouraged to expect the benefits of EU association and ultimate membership. And ... we all know the rest.

    I am less than convinced that anything of this was inspired by the US or by the CIA or whatever. The period over which these events occurred was characterized by a general sense of withdrawal on the part of the US from interest in European defense, and (latterly) a switch to concentration on US interests in the Pacific theatre. No doubt, the US was happy to countenance the activities of the EU and NATO (as an organization) in eastern Europe; however, I very much doubt that US policy was a dominant interest in this process. It was more a matter of the EU's express determination to develop its "superstate" aspirations (establishment of an EU diplomatic service, for example) combined with the desperate desire of NATO to find a new reason for existence in a post-Cold War world. Now we have to deal with Cold War II. Nice work, Brussels. Yours from the Mineshaft Gap, JR.
    Last edited by JR*; 03-05-2015 at 06:54 AM.

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    Try not to fall off of your Soap Box there Witman 111, Your statement to Nick : "I so wish you to somehow spend 1 day in Stalingrad 1942...
    That attitude of yours would come off in 5 min. And you would be probably dead next day. Frozen, un-buried with facial expression of unimaginable last breath agony and pain, as reminder to others of your kin." This hardly matches your back up statement:
    " 1) I said his attitude would probably get him dead in situation he very much desires. Dead, frozen people TODAY in Ukraine are result of policy he advocates and implements even if only on forum. "
    These two statements do not agree. You said you wished him into a situation most likely resulting in his grisly death.
    If you have a problem with a member, keep it to P.M.'s as when it's done in the boards it can be considered Trolling, or Spamming. You are aware of how things work here, and are using a rather broad brush to make your claims. No more of your diatribes against other members This is an official notice.
    Last edited by tankgeezer; 03-05-2015 at 08:17 AM.

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    Default Re: Ukraine - Munich II ?

    Quote Originally Posted by JR* View Post
    Having come within days of signing an EU association agreement, the Ukrainian government of the time, facing Russian threats, backed off. This, not surprisingly, resulted in an uprising against it by west Ukrainians who had been encouraged to expect the benefits of EU association and ultimate membership. And ... we all know the rest.

    I am less than convinced that anything of this was inspired by the US or by the CIA or whatever.
    Although I agree with most you said fact is US official said US paid up 5 billion $ for ... uprising. You missed that part ?
    If you look at so called "protesters" on Youtube, they were by no means harmless civilians. They usually formed homogeneous groups of young males armed with cold weapons which they used freely on special police "Berkut". Frankly, if I was Berkut I would shot some1 with shovel or spike charging at me on the spot. Twice.
    They were obviously trained in tactics, fearless and well organized.

    They were no casual "civilans", they were armed, young, "organized" and obviously paid to be there. In thousands.

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    Default Re: Ukraine - Munich II ?

    Not terribly happy about being quoted somewhat out of context. As regards Youtube, Facebook and all the rest of that "social media" stuff, I am not involved and tend to regard it as a dangerous, poisonous, delusive, anti-social phenomenon. This Forum needs to cool down a bit. Remember - assertion is no substitute for evidence, and assertion (even by crowds of people on social media) is not "evidence", except insofar as it is supported by real evidence (in terms of the truth of its contents). Of course, it is always evidence of the fact that certain statements have been made, and that itself has an historical value; but only in a secondary sense. Best regards, JR.
    Last edited by JR*; 03-11-2015 at 09:56 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by witman111 View Post
    Nothing, all he had to show was little red button... rest is psychological profiling that was already done for him long ago.
    Oh please! Like the U.S. and Euro countries don't?!


    http://www.informationclearinghouse....ticle37599.htm
    Imagine protesters beating up US special police in Washington DC and Ucle Vlad threatening Obama not to use force 3 months before regular elections
    But they had to do it. Otherwise extreme right would never get to power.
    Misinformed and ain't too bright! how many "rightest" are actually in power in Kiev? Maybe 10% of the politicians? Another bland, bullshit Putin-ist propaganda piece...

    You know, Hitler thought same thing. Unmotivated Russians and obsolete Russian technology. And he was off, way off. Just ask elite German panzer divisions.
    When EC president Barosso called Vlad to inquire about Russia's intervention in Ukraine, Vlad said "what intervention" ? And added if there were intervention, Russian tanks can be in Bukurest/Budapes/Warsaw in few days. And he was right.
    Yeah, um, try to read a bit about things. The Soviet Red Army was quite large and well funded prior to WWII. You're drawing silly historical parallels. Russian tanks would be smoldering hulks before they got too close to Warsaw...

    I live in central Europe and I know very well no Cameron/Obama would ever come to save us.
    You live in Croatia, where we "saved" you in 1995, by training and allowing your Army to be equipped to take back parts of "greater Serbia". You're welcome!

    and P.S
    I so wish you to somehow spend 1 day in Stalingrad 1942...
    That attitude of yours would come off in 5 min. And you would be probably dead next day. Frozen, un-buried with facial expression of unimaginable last breath agony and pain, as reminder to others of your kin.
    How would you know?

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