Re: Could Japan have won if they lost?

Originally Posted by
Eastwind
They put a pretty good lick on us at Pearl Harbor and we still won the war.
Japan lost the war in large part because it lacked the shipping needed to sustain its advances and occupations in subsequent years, which is consistent with Japan's often short term and flawed strategic thinking in conducting the Pacific War.
Japan was pretty much doomed before it fired the first shot when compared with the US resources which would be pitted against it in a long war, which was recognised by some of Japan's own pre-war planners.
As for Pearl, America was lucky that significant ships weren't in the harbour at the time of Japan's attack, but it wouldn't have altered the end result apart from timing. http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm

Originally Posted by
Eastwind
There were no Carrier strikes on Japan until late in the war, well after we had the strength to do it.
Towards the end of the war the air strikes on Japan were coming from the islands captured by the combined naval and land assaults. Meanwhile , shipping close to Japan was reduced to a bit of a turkey shoot by the USN against hopelessly depleted IJN and Japanese merchant shipping.

Originally Posted by
Eastwind
Nor was any thought given to attacking the Japanese mainland until the central Pacific had been won.
You might like to look a the history of planning for invasion of the Japanese home islands, which was in train long before the end of the central Pacific advance. Start with Operation Olympic.
..
A rational army would run away.
Montesquieu
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