PDA

View Full Version : North Korean Nukes: and Will Japan Rearm?



Nickdfresh
10-12-2006, 12:59 PM
Link (http://wwwimage.cbsnews.com/images/2006/10/04/image2059789g.jpg)

North Korea's Nukes Worry Japan
Barry Petersen Discusses The Effect Of North Korea's Nuclear Ambitions On Japan's Future


TOKYO, Oct. 12, 2006
http://wwwimage.cbsnews.com/images/2006/10/04/image2059789g.jpg
Shinzo Abe addressing lawmakersNew Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe says it's time for his country's era of pacifism to end. (AP Photo)


Japan is the only country ever to have been hit with an atomic weapon, a collective memory that weighs heavy on Japanese minds as the North Korean nuclear standoff continues.

With North Korean now claiming to be a nuclear power, the Japanese are worried. Japan is well within range of North Korean missiles. If North Korea continues its nuclear weapons program, the Japanese know there are some tough decisions ahead — decisions that go to the very nature of what Japan is and how it must change.

First, a touch of World War II history: After Japan lost, the United States imposed a pacifist constitution that made Japan renounce the use of force. Its military — today totaling a quarter-million — is allowed for self-defense only.

Yukio Okamoto, who once advised Japan's top policymakers, tells me that North Korea’s nuclear ambitions are changing Japanese minds.

"Japanese will support strongly to beef up our defense capability," says Okamoto. "But I don’t think we will go as far as pursuing offensive weapons like missiles capable of crossing the Sea of Japan."

This was also a bit of a mind-changer; In 1998 North Korea staged a test that lobbed a missile over Japan. The Japanese know they are in the cross-hairs of a possible nuclear North.

"Because of the nuclear test, we have a greater fear of nuclear attack," one man told me. "I am scared."

All this plays into the hands of Japan's new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, who says it's time to end Japan's era of pacifism, time to beef up the military — and time to think of the day when Japan may need to launch a pre-emptive attack against North Korea to protect itself.

But Abe assured parliament that Japan would not, itself, go nuclear. For that level of defense, Japan will continue to trust in its strongest ally, the United States.

Okamoto explains that what is needed is "more strengthening of Japan's security ties with the United States, because, after all, U.S. nuclear capability is the only practical deterrence we have against North Korea."

The Japanese have a rare perspective on the world's nuclear history. Their army was notorious in World War II for its massacres and rapes. The war ended when Japan became the only country ever to become the target of an atomic bomb.

To the Japanese, nuclear war is something real, something that can scar a country forever, which is why at Hiroshima's ground zero, they say a prayer: "Never again."


By Barry Petersen ©MMVI, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Firefly
10-12-2006, 03:17 PM
Japan already has one of the worlds strongest militaries. I'm sure if they decided to aquire nuclear weapons they will. Dont let the Self defence force idea fool anyone, they are a proper military.

Gen. Sandworm
10-13-2006, 03:17 AM
Personally I think we are going to see a new cold war in that part of the world if China does not take a massive step in dissolving the issue. Also if the UN lets this one go and N. Korea gets their way what is stop other countries from doing it. Iran for example. They are watching very closely. Im all for them having nuclear power...........nuclear weapons is a total different story. My opinion is that if the UN security council cannot effectively dissolve this potential crisis then forget about the council all together. IMO they have done next to nothing in solving world conflict. (yea there are a few worth mentioning but not many). It seems to me they are an ineffective part of the UN. Maybe this is do to the permanent members (WW2 ended a long time ago) of the security council always disagreeing. Whatever...........get on the ball or just disband the council. The africans will never know the difference. :(

Call me crazy but I think are staff members on this site accomplish more than they do.

Nickdfresh
10-13-2006, 10:41 AM
Japan already has one of the worlds strongest militaries. I'm sure if they decided to aquire nuclear weapons they will. Dont let the Self defence force idea fool anyone, they are a proper military.

Indeed, I posted the following at another board:

And they're extremely high-tech. Maybe something we've forgotten in the past few years since not everything is "Made in Japan" anymore. But they have F-15J(apan)'s that are superior to the U.S. produced F-15C Eagles. Same airframe, same design and engine, but different avionics.

Japan also has its own, indigenous line of armored fighting vehicles that are on par with anything designed in the US or Europe. And they'd very much like to sell this stuff abroad, but can't with the restrictions in their post-WWII constitution. The new nationalist Prime Minister would like to change that.

The stupid North Korean guy may have just given them the excuse...

I think the Soviets once complained during the Cold War that Japan was largely ignored, and they produced a credible document on how Japan could quickly expand to a million man army in short order.

Panzerknacker
10-13-2006, 07:25 PM
A nuke with a nut like this....

http://graphics.nytimes.com/images/2006/07/06/world/06assess190.jpg



It simply dont mix.

Chevan
10-14-2006, 03:33 PM
Gentlemens , now we see the beginning of the wreck "American's world safety system".
It's obviously Japane wants to be freed from the guardianship BY THE USA.


"Because of the nuclear test, we have a greater fear of nuclear attack," one man told me. "I am scared."

Do anybody ask why N.Korea need to attack the Japane?

THE USA forced the situation, constantly frightening peace by Korean threat.

Russia and China as the nearest neighbors are perturbed, but there is nothing terrible in this.
Both states has enought nuclear forses to fully distruct the N.Korea and certainly the koreans leader not idiots to begin the new war.
Look in the situation by the N.Kor eyes. Poorest country live in in the hostile environment try to survived. They created some nuclear charges (no more then 5 and not power 10 -20 kilo tonnes) for the "power demostration".They havn't not enought resourses to make much more.
And what then?
will they attack the Japane? In this case all of the world get the legitime right to slaughter the N.Korea. And this "regime" will be never exist more..
Not much idiot in the world could capable to do this.

The interesting is another.
It's obviously USA is perturbed not so much by the nuclear weapon of Korea as by possible loss of its control over Japan (i.e. by its supremacy in the region).
The "N.Korea treat" is the political the "horror story" OF THE USA to justify its own military presence (and as consequence political pressure) in the region. This has already long ago tired to the Japanese and they simply find pretext will get rid of the American guardianship.

P.S. By the way, when THE USA were considered necessarily, they "gave" nuclear weapons for everybody (for example to the dictatorial regime of Pakistan). And nobody doubt about "nuclear treat".


simple dirty external the politic...;)

SS Tiger
10-14-2006, 07:14 PM
The UN security council is just one big talking shop, worst they'll do is send Mr Jong Il a lovely letter telling him how much they don't like him having nukes.

Firefly
10-15-2006, 02:47 AM
Chevan

The US gave Pakistan Nuclear weapons? News to me?

2nd of foot
10-15-2006, 11:03 AM
Does this guy have any grasp of what is/has gone on in the world.

Japans constitution will not let it send combat troops out side the country. It also has a bit about the use of nuclear weapons. Japan has the ability to build nuclear weapons at any time but does not.

The war in Korea is still going on, there was a cease fire followed by talks, which are ongoing. NKorea over the last 30-40 years has been involved in hostilities against the south and Japan. They have repeatedly used warships to encroach into territorial water of other countries and kidnapped their citizens.


The DPRK during the period 1970's - 1990's as a matter of policy, using military personnel in military operations kidnapped Japanese nationals from beaches of northern Japan and from other countries in Europe. The purpose of these abductions was to provide teachers of Japanese language and culture to DPRK spy trainees. For a good introduction to the history of this issue please read these

http://photios.blogspot.com/2005/03/north-korea-kidnaps-japanese.html

MAD as a tactic is not appropriate in this case as the leadership in NK is mad and cares nothing for the population.

As for the US giving Islamabad nuclear weapons you are a moron.



P.S. By the way, when THE USA were considered necessarily, they "gave" nuclear weapons for everybody (for example to the dictatorial regime of Pakistan). And nobody doubt about "nuclear treat".





KARACHI, Pakistan Pakistan's former top nuclear scientist, who confessed to leaking sensitive technology to North Korea, Iran and Libya, returned to his home

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/10/15/asia/AS_GEN_Pakistan_Nuclear_Scientist.php

Chevan
10-15-2006, 01:40 PM
Chevan

The US gave Pakistan Nuclear weapons? News to me?

Firefly, certainly it's not correct wold "gave"
exuse me for the translation ( again alta-vista joking ...)
Certainly USA not gave the wearpon , but very much helped in it's creation in Pakistan..


http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=32&ItemID=4995
...Pakistan could not have emerged as a nuclear power without decades-long assistance and acquiescence by the US government. During the Cold War, Washington sought to cultivate the Pakistani military as a counter to the Soviet Union's friendly relations with India. Under the ``Atoms for Peace'‘ program, Washington trained scores of Pakistan's nuclear scientists from 1956 until 1972. In 1962, the US gave the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) its first research reactor and supplies of nuclear fuel rods.

Despite a US law passed in 1976 (the ``Symington amendment'‘) that required the US to suspend economic and military aid to non-signatories of the Nuclear Non-proliferation that engage in uranium enrichment, Washington did not respond to the mounting evidence of Pakistan's nuclear program. It was not until the dying days of US President Jimmy Carter's presidency, on April 6, 1979, that US aid to Pakistan, worth $85 million, was finally halted.

However, this half-hearted concern at Pakistan's nuclear shenanigans was short-lived. Following the Soviet military intervention in Afghanistan in December 1979, Carter offered Pakistan resumed economic and military of $400 million. Islamabad held out for more.

In June 1981, President Ronald Reagan announced an agreement to provide Pakistan with $3.2 billion in economic and military aid over the next six years. In December 1981, Congress approved the aid package and granted Pakistan a six-year exemption from Symington amendment sanctions.

Billions more in covert assistance from the CIA, Britain, Saudi Arabia and other sources flooded into the Pakistani military's coffers in the 1980s. The Pakistan ISI took charge of funneling arms and money to the feuding gangs that made up the reactionary mujaheddin fighting to overthrow Afghanistan's Soviet-backed, left-wing government. For Washington, defeating the Afghan ``communists' and their Soviet backers was far more important than stemming Pakistan's nuclear ambitions.

In July 1985, Congress passed another $4 billion six-year aid package for Pakistan, but also passed the ``Pressler amendment'‘, which required the US president to certify each year that Pakistan ``does not possess a nuclear device'‘ and was not involved in nuclear smuggling before the aid could be delivered.

Unfazed, Reagan certified Pakistan's compliance in 1986 despite the fact that, according to the November 4, 1986, Washington Post, US intelligence reports and non-proliferation experts had concluded that Pakistan was between two weeks and ``two screwdriver turns from having a fully assembled bomb'‘.

In 1987, Congress approved another $480 million in aid for Pakistan and extended the Symington amendment exemption for another two and half years.

Despite overwhelming evidence, including public boasts by Pakistani politicians and scientists, that Pakistan had a nuclear bomb, Reagan and his successor, President George Bush senior, certified Pakistan to be free of nukes every year until 1990 (the Soviet Union had withdrawn its troops from Afghanistan in early 1989). In October 1990, Washington halted economic and military aid to Islamabad, worth $564 million, and froze government arms sales.

However, the damage had been done. It was too late to put Pakistan's nuclear genie back into its bottle. As US senator John Glenn, one of the sponsors of the Symington amendment, observed in the June 26, 1992, International Herald Tribune: ``Nine years of US assistance had helped Pakistan release funds for its nuclear weapons program and given it the means for delivering the weapons.'‘

In 1995, the US Congress waived the Pressler amendment provisions for one year to allow the delivery of $368 million worth of ``non-strategic military equipment'‘ as part of a resumption of ``counterterrorism'‘ military training.

Under the US Arms Export Control Act, President Bill Clinton was supposed to impose military and economic sanctions on both Pakistan and India following their May 1998 nuclear tests. However, fearing that US agribusiness and other economic interests would be disadvantaged, a month after the tests Congress granted both countries an exemption from sanctions for one year. Days later, the president was given additional authority to waive sanctions for a year at a time.

Clinton swiftly restored funding for military training and commercial credit programs to both countries. He also gave the green light to renewed International Monetary Fund loans to both countries. Clinton also gave permission for Islamabad to be paid US$325 million in cash and US$140 million in goods as compensation for 28 F-16 aircraft that Pakistan had partly paid for but were never delivered due to the 1990 sanctions.

Following Musharraf's coup, Washington briefly imposed tepid new sanctions. However, these (as well as all sanctions against India) were waived two weeks after the September 11, 2001, attacks in the US as President Bush junior moved quickly to enlist both countries as close allies in his ``war on terror'‘. In a replay of its dealings with General Zia, Washington chose to place its strategic alliance with Musharraf's regime above the need to rein in the Pakistani nuclear rogue state

besides od US another nations helped for pakistan to crete the nuclear bomb:

Canada AES - plant for the production of "heavy water".
France AES- technology on processing of plutonium.
C.P.R. (CHINESE PEOPLES' REPUBLIC AES) - plant for the enrichment of uranium, plant for the production of "heavy water", the project 25 kt of nuclear device, 5000 magnetic rings for the gas centrifuges.
Switzerland - the project of plant for the enrichment of uranium, 13- inch steel spheres and steel lobes for the production of nuclear device.
THE FRG( western germany) - vacuum pumps and equipment for the gas centrifuges (firm Leybold Heraeus Hanan), the technology of cleaning plutonium by gas tritium, gas is tritium.
Great Britain - 30 high-frequency inverters for control of the speeds of centrifuge.
USA - research reactor, diagnostic and scientific equipment, oscillographs and the computers.

Also there are the facts that Israel supplied to the Myshafar's bomb the materials and tehnology


American law court recognized the former Israeli Ashera Karani as the guilty of sale of technologies and components, utilized with the production of weapon of mass-destruction to Pakistan. Thus far for a similar crime there were osuzhden another Israeli businessman, Nakhum Manbar, which sold to Iran the chemicals, utilized with the production of chemical weaponry. He was sentenced by Israeli law court to 16 years of the imprisonment. One additional businessman, Moshe Regev, also suspected of the participation to sale of chemicals into Iran, he so not was returned under the law court, but him they introduced into the "black list", published by the White House during November 1994.
10 april 2005

2nd of foot
10-15-2006, 02:26 PM
If the Pakistani were, as your report puts it;


Unfazed, Reagan certified Pakistan's compliance in 1986 despite the fact that, according to the November 4, 1986, Washington Post, US intelligence reports and non-proliferation experts had concluded that Pakistan was between two weeks and ``two screwdriver turns from having a fully assembled bomb'‘.

Where as my article has it that:


Pakistan carried out nuclear tests in May 1998 after similar tests by rival India earlier that month.

Took a bloody long time to turn the screw then.

It would seem that he got his info from URENCO and not the US (oh bugger another problem we can not blame them for).


That same year, he joined the staff of the Physical Dynamics Research Laboratory, or FDO, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. FDO was a subcontractor for URENCO, the uranium enrichment facility at Almelo in the Netherlands, which had been established in 1970 by the United Kingdom, West Germany, and the Netherlands to assure a supply of enriched uranium for European nuclear reactors.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdul_Qadeer_Khan



And as for the US giving Pakistan nuclear info in the 50/60s do not be a mong. The US would not give the UK any info even though we provided people to work on the Manhattan project. They only relented when the UK produced a very big bang. The US controlled the nuclear warheads for UK land based weapons they provided/sold. Thor and Honest John. So they are unlikly to give a third world country they do not know or trust any good info. the ability to run a reactor is not the same as making a bomb.

pdf27
10-16-2006, 01:02 PM
The ability to run a reactor is not the same as making a bomb.
Indeed. As demonstrated by the fact that both the Pakistani and North Korean first-generation nuclear bombs fizzled (the Pakistani one was apparently a Uranium gun-type device - nobody has yet worked out how them managed to get it to fizzle, it should be impossible).

Firefly
10-16-2006, 03:49 PM
Well, the whole question in this thread is wrong. Japan wont re-arm, they are already armed to a level that most countries could never match.

2nd of foot
10-16-2006, 05:43 PM
Then the question should be then “are they willing to do something about it”. History should tell the NK that they could and there is not must the NK could do about it. If they (Japan) go in very hard and fast it will be all over bar the shouting. IDF ring any bells.

This may be the feather needed to tip the scales.

Nickdfresh
10-16-2006, 08:17 PM
Firefly, certainly it's not correct wold "gave"
exuse me for the translation ( again alta-vista joking ...)
Certainly USA not gave the wearpon , but very much helped in it's creation in Pakistan..

No, the US in no way helped Pakistan get the bomb, certainly not by intention.


besides od US another nations helped for pakistan to crete the nuclear bomb:

Canada AES - plant for the production of "heavy water".
France AES- technology on processing of plutonium.
C.P.R. (CHINESE PEOPLES' REPUBLIC AES) - plant for the enrichment of uranium, plant for the production of "heavy water", the project 25 kt of nuclear device, 5000 magnetic rings for the gas centrifuges.
Switzerland - the project of plant for the enrichment of uranium, 13- inch steel spheres and steel lobes for the production of nuclear device.
THE FRG( western germany) - vacuum pumps and equipment for the gas centrifuges (firm Leybold Heraeus Hanan), the technology of cleaning plutonium by gas tritium, gas is tritium.
Great Britain - 30 high-frequency inverters for control of the speeds of centrifuge.
USA - research reactor, diagnostic and scientific equipment, oscillographs and the computers.

Also there are the facts that Israel supplied to the Myshafar's bomb the materials and tehnology

Again, where are you deriving this silly list from? it's clearly out of context nonsense. And why the hell would Israel give a nation technology that has had factions of its intelligence support the most extreme Islamic fundamentalists in the world (the Taliban) to this day?

Nickdfresh
10-16-2006, 08:24 PM
Well, the whole question in this thread is wrong. Japan wont re-arm, they are already armed to a level that most countries could never match.

You are correct, the real question is if they'll begin to assemble offensive systems. Right now, most everything is geared towards a strictly defensive doctrine limited to the home islands. I think for instance, their Air Force lacks a dedicated, or multirole, strike aircraft; but I could be wrong about that. Of course, as pointed out, they have a well funded air force, so it would take them a few months to create such a capability.

Chevan
10-23-2006, 07:40 AM
If the Pakistani were, as your report puts it;

Where as my article has it that:

Took a bloody long time to turn the screw then.

It would seem that he got his info from URENCO and not the US (oh bugger another problem we can not blame them for).

There are exist many sources which confirmed the US (and other ) interaction with Pakistan nuclear program. Don't try to be the naive.
Pakistan had a lot of foreign help in building of much elements of nuclear production (except the gas centrifuge - the vechicles for concentrate of uran).
ALL other parts of nuclear conveer Pakistan were developed WITH FOREGHN HELP. (Also Like and India).
And even don't try to say that Pakistan purely itself developed the A-bomb.



And as for the US giving Pakistan nuclear info in the 50/60s do not be a mong. The US would not give the UK any info even though we provided people to work on the Manhattan project. They only relented when the UK produced a very big bang. The US controlled the nuclear warheads for UK land based weapons they provided/sold. Thor and Honest John. So they are unlikly to give a third world country they do not know or trust any good info. the ability to run a reactor is not the same as making a bomb.
was US unlikly or not, but the fact that after Pakistan nuclear testing ( 6 underground explosions) NOBODY in the world told about economic sanctions or political preasure for the islamic state .
Certainly today Pakistan is "american friendly" state , but nobody sure that tomorrow islamic extremists forces couldn't take the power in there.
Also don't forget that Indo-Pakistan nuclear war conflict is still real (much more real than N/Korean nuclear attack).
But why do worry about it, really?

We better will talk about possible Japane rearmed ;)

Chevan
10-23-2006, 08:00 AM
Well, the whole question in this thread is wrong. Japan wont re-arm, they are already armed to a level that most countries could never match.
What's your problem , Firefly.
Lets Japane try to re-arm. What do you afraid: Perl-Harbor2?
If Japane will decide forced it's army, there are enough countries in region to limit them ( as example China or South Korea).
I think it's need forget already the anti-Japanes racists principles: each country has own right for the defence.
Maybe your anglo-saxon right to "rule the world" (Japane) is distressed?

China already 10 years has the re-arm program. And what's happened?
Armageddon, or the End of Civilisation? Or maybe China's nuclear weapon killed the millions?

Nickdfresh
10-23-2006, 10:58 AM
What's your problem , Firefly.
Lets Japane try to re-arm. What do you afraid: Perl-Harbor2?
If Japane will decide forced it's army, there are enough countries in region to limit them ( as example China or South Korea).
I think it's need forget already the anti-Japanes racists principles: each country has own right for the defence.
Maybe your anglo-saxon right to "rule the world" (Japane) is distressed?

China already 10 years has the re-arm program. And what's happened?
Armageddon, or the End of Civilisation? Or maybe China's nuclear weapon killed the millions?


You miss understand Firefly, what he is saying is that Japan is already armed pretty well with first rate (defensive) weapons systems.

A country cannot rearm that is already well armed...

Chevan
10-23-2006, 01:33 PM
You miss understand Firefly, what he is saying is that Japan is already armed pretty well with first rate (defensive) weapons systems.

A country cannot rearm that is already well armed...

So what's the question of this thread?


P.S. some video mpeg 1,9 mb
ftp://clon.mediazona.ru/pub/VIDEO/Chevan/Stihi.avi
N.Korean pioneers read the verse:
i got a shock... ;)

Gen. Sandworm
10-27-2006, 04:27 AM
So what's the question of this thread?


P.S. some video mpeg 1,9 mb
ftp://clon.mediazona.ru/pub/VIDEO/Chevan/Stihi.avi
N.Korean pioneers read the verse:
i got a shock... ;)


Not really rearming as it would be improving and stockpiling weapons. I might also point out at this moment that both the former major axis powers are rethinking their military's. (Japan and Germany) Germany is readapting its military to more of an interventional role. Will Japan do the same???